A makon da ya gabata, kasuwar ta yi hasashen cewa yuan na kusan kusan yuan 7 kan dala bayan da aka samu koma baya a shekarar da ta fara a ranar 15 ga watan Agusta.
A ranar 15 ga watan Satumba, yuan na teku ya fadi kasa da yuan 7 ga dalar Amurka, lamarin da ya haifar da zazzafar muhawara a kasuwa.Ya zuwa karfe 10 na ranar 16 ga watan Satumba, yuan na bakin teku ya tashi a kan 7.0327 zuwa dala.Me yasa ya sake karya 7?Na farko, index ɗin dala ya sami sabon matsayi.A ranar 5 ga Satumba, index ɗin dala ya sake ketare matakin 110, yana bugun shekaru 20.Wannan ya samo asali ne saboda dalilai guda biyu: matsanancin yanayi na baya-bayan nan a Turai, matsalolin makamashi da ke haifar da rikice-rikice na geopolitical, da kuma tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da aka haifar da farfadowa a farashin makamashi, duk sun sake sabunta hadarin koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya;Na biyu, kalaman "mikiya" na shugaban Fed Powell a taron shekara-shekara na babban bankin kasar a Jackson Hole a watan Agusta ya sake haifar da tsammanin yawan riba.
Na biyu, kasadar tattalin arzikin kasar Sin ya karu.A cikin 'yan watannin nan, an sami abubuwa da yawa da suka shafi ci gaban tattalin arziki: sake bullar annobar a wurare da dama ta shafi ci gaban tattalin arziki kai tsaye;Tazarar da ke tsakanin wadata da buƙatun wutar lantarki a wasu yankunan ya tilastawa katse wutar lantarki, wanda ke shafar harkokin tattalin arziki na yau da kullun;Kasuwar gidaje ta sami tasiri ta hanyar "katsewar samar da kayayyaki", kuma yawancin masana'antu masu alaƙa sun shafi.Ci gaban tattalin arziki yana fuskantar raguwa a wannan shekara.
A karshe, bambance-bambancen manufofin hada-hadar kudi tsakanin Sin da Amurka ya zurfafa, yawan kudin ruwa na dogon lokaci da ke yaduwa tsakanin Sin da Amurka ya karu cikin sauri, da jujjuyawar adadin kudin da ake samu a baitul mali.Faduwar saurin yaduwa tsakanin baitul malin Amurka da Sin na tsawon shekaru 10 daga BP 113 a farkon shekarar zuwa -65 a ranar 1 ga Satumba, ya haifar da ci gaba da raguwar hannayen jari a cikin gida daga cibiyoyin waje.A zahiri, yayin da Amurka ta haɓaka manufofin kuɗi kuma dala ta tashi, sauran ajiyar kuɗi a cikin kwandon SDR (Haƙƙin Zane na Musamman) sun faɗi akan dala., yuan na kan teku ya yi ciniki a kan 7.0163 zuwa dala.
Menene tasirin RMB "karye 7" zai kasance akan kasuwancin waje?
Kamfanonin shigo da kaya: Shin farashin zai karu?
Muhimman dalilan wannan zagaye na faduwar darajar RMB akan dala su ne: saurin fadada bambancin kudin ruwa na dogon lokaci tsakanin Sin da Amurka, da daidaita manufofin hada-hadar kudi a Amurka.
Dangane da ƙimar darajar dalar Amurka, sauran kudaden ajiyar kuɗi a cikin kwandon SDR (Haƙƙin Zane na Musamman) duk sun ragu sosai akan dalar Amurka.Daga watan Janairu zuwa Agusta, darajar Yuro ya ragu da kashi 12%, Fam na Burtaniya ya ragu da kashi 14%, Yen na Japan ya ragu da kashi 17%, sannan RMB ya ragu da kashi 8%.
Idan aka kwatanta da sauran kudaden da ba na dala ba, raguwar darajar yuan ya yi kadan.A cikin kwandon SDR, baya ga faduwar darajar dalar Amurka, RMB ta kara daraja kan kudaden da ba na dalar Amurka ba, kuma babu wani faduwa gaba daya na RMB.
Idan kamfanonin shigo da kaya sun yi amfani da dala, farashinsa ya karu;Amma a zahiri an rage farashin amfani da Yuro, Sterling da yen yen.
Ya zuwa karfe 10 na safe 16 ga watan Satumba, ana cinikin kudin Euro kan yuan 7.0161;An sayar da fam a 8.0244;Yuan ya kasance a kan 20.4099 yen.
Kamfanoni na fitarwa: ingantaccen tasirin canjin musayar yana iyakance
Don kamfanonin fitar da kayayyaki galibi suna amfani da dalar Amurka, babu shakka cewa faduwar darajar renminbi yana kawo labari mai daɗi, ana iya haɓaka sararin ribar kasuwanci sosai.
Amma kamfanonin da ke daidaitawa cikin wasu manyan kuɗaɗen kuɗi har yanzu suna buƙatar sa ido sosai kan farashin musaya.
Ga kanana da matsakaitan masana'antu, ya kamata mu mai da hankali kan ko lokacin fa'idar musayar musayar ya dace da lokacin lissafin kuɗi.Idan akwai raguwa, tasiri mai kyau na musayar musayar zai zama maras kyau.
Har ila yau, canjin canjin kuɗi na iya sa abokan ciniki suyi tsammanin darajar dala, wanda ke haifar da matsin farashi, jinkirin biyan kuɗi da sauran yanayi.
Kamfanoni suna buƙatar yin aiki mai kyau a cikin sarrafa haɗari da gudanarwa.Ya kamata ba kawai bincika bayanan abokan ciniki dalla-dalla ba, har ma, idan ya cancanta, ɗaukar matakan da suka dace kamar haɓaka ƙimar ajiya daidai, siyan inshorar ƙima ta kasuwanci, yin amfani da daidaitawar RMB gwargwadon yiwuwa, kulle ƙimar musayar ta hanyar “shinge” da rage lokacin ingancin farashi don sarrafa mummunan tasirin canjin canjin kuɗi.
03 Nasihu na sasantawa game da kasuwancin waje
Canjin canjin kuɗi takobi ne mai kaifi biyu, wasu kamfanonin kasuwancin waje sun fara daidaita “musanya kulle” da farashi don haɓaka gasa.
Tukwici na IPayLinks: Tushen sarrafa haɗarin musayar musayar ya ta'allaka ne a cikin "tsarewa" maimakon "yabo", da "kulle musayar" (hedging) shine kayan aikin shingen musayar musayar da aka fi amfani dashi a halin yanzu.
Dangane da yanayin canjin kudin RMB akan dalar Amurka, kamfanonin kasuwanci na kasashen waje za su iya mai da hankali kan rahotannin da suka dace na taron daidaita kudin ruwa na FOMC na tarayya a ranar 22 ga Satumba, agogon Beijing.
A cewar CME's Fed Watch, yuwuwar Fed ta haɓaka ƙimar riba da maki 75 zuwa Satumba shine 80%, kuma yuwuwar haɓaka ƙimar riba ta maki 100 shine 20%.Akwai damar 36% na jimlar ƙimar tushe 125 zuwa Nuwamba, damar 53% na haɓaka tushe 150 da damar 11% na haɓaka tushen tushe 175.
Idan Fed ya ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar riba da ƙarfi, ƙimar dalar Amurka za ta sake tashi da ƙarfi kuma dalar Amurka za ta ƙarfafa, wanda zai ƙara rage darajar RMB da sauran manyan kuɗaɗen da ba na Amurka ba.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-20-2022